A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
