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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers ascending together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still